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2018 Governor · NM

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 936 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 43.7%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 42.80%

D+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 43.7 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.199 − 42.801 = 14.398
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (14.398) = -5.398
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.398| = 5.398

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56508, race ID 153 (538 database).