Skip to content

2018 House · NM-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 278 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 46.8%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.93% · Republican 49.07%

D+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 46.8 = 0.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.934 − 49.066 = 1.868
  3. Signed miss = 0.40 − (1.868) = -1.468
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.468| = 1.468

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56508, race ID 432 (538 database).