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2018 House · NM-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 331 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.2% · Republican 37.2%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.38% · Republican 31.21%

D+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.2 − 37.2 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.375 − 31.208 = 32.167
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (32.167) = -15.167
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.167| = 15.167

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56508, race ID 433 (538 database).