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2018 Senate · NJ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 659 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 42%

D+5.3

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 42.83%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 42 = 5.30
  2. Actual margin = 54.007 − 42.828 = 11.179
  3. Signed miss = 5.30 − (11.179) = -5.879
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.879| = 5.879

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56509, race ID 113 (538 database).