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2018 House · VA-7

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.34% · Republican 48.40%

D+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.337 − 48.397 = 1.940
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (1.940) = 1.061
  4. Absolute miss = |1.061| = 1.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56510, race ID 574 (538 database).