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2018 Senate · MA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55.6% · Republican 34.4%

D+21.2

The certified result

Democrat 60.34% · Republican 36.17%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.6 − 34.4 = 21.20
  2. Actual margin = 60.337 − 36.172 = 24.165
  3. Signed miss = 21.20 − (24.165) = -2.965
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.965| = 2.965

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56512, race ID 105 (538 database).