Skip to content

2018 Senate · TX

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,078 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.568) = -2.433
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.433| = 2.433

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56513, race ID 121 (538 database).