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2018 Governor · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 33.7%

D+10.8

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 37.18%

D+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 33.7 = 10.80
  2. Actual margin = 52.636 − 37.176 = 15.460
  3. Signed miss = 10.80 − (15.460) = -4.660
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.660| = 4.660

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56518, race ID 159 (538 database).