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2018 Senate · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 36.3%

D+16.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 36.3 = 16.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
  3. Signed miss = 16.70 − (6.506) = 10.194
  4. Absolute miss = |10.194| = 10.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56520, race ID 106 (538 database).