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2018 Governor · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 37.5%

D+12.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 37.5 = 12.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 12.50 − (9.567) = 2.933
  4. Absolute miss = |2.933| = 2.933

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56520, race ID 148 (538 database).