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2018 House · PA-10

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 366 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.68% · Republican 51.32%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.678 − 51.322 = -2.644
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-2.644) = -0.355
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.355| = 0.355

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56521, race ID 500 (538 database).