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2018 House · NY-19

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 372 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 39.00%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.079 − 38.996 = 8.083
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (8.083) = -6.083
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.083| = 6.083

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56540, race ID 456 (538 database).