Skip to content

2018 House · NC-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 565 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.82% · Republican 51.27%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.817 − 51.272 = -5.455
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-5.455) = -3.545
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.545| = 3.545

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56542, race ID 401 (538 database).