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2018 Senate · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 566 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 43%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.41% · Republican 46.57%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 43 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.411 − 46.566 = 6.845
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (6.845) = -1.046
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.046| = 1.046

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56544, race ID 117 (538 database).