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2018 Governor · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 566 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 45.8%

D+3.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.39%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 45.8 = 3.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.683 − 50.387 = -3.704
  3. Signed miss = 3.50 − (-3.704) = 7.204
  4. Absolute miss = |7.204| = 7.204

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56544, race ID 155 (538 database).