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2018 House · KS-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 221 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.2% · Republican 51.1%

R+14.9

The certified result

Democrat 31.86% · Republican 68.14%

R+36.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.2 − 51.1 = -14.90
  2. Actual margin = 31.855 − 68.145 = -36.290
  3. Signed miss = -14.90 − (-36.290) = 21.391
  4. Absolute miss = |21.391| = 21.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56545, race ID 330 (538 database).