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2018 House · KS-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 262 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.4% · Republican 42.6%

D+12.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.57% · Republican 43.91%

D+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.4 − 42.6 = 12.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.571 − 43.909 = 9.662
  3. Signed miss = 12.80 − (9.662) = 3.137
  4. Absolute miss = |3.137| = 3.137

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56545, race ID 332 (538 database).