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2018 House · MT-1

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 782 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.25% · Republican 50.88%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.248 − 50.882 = -4.634
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.634) = 4.634
  4. Absolute miss = |4.634| = 4.634

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56546, race ID 399 (538 database).