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2018 House · IA-4

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 50.37%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.037 − 50.368 = -3.331
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-3.331) = -14.668
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.668| = 14.668

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56552, race ID 300 (538 database).