2018 Governor · FL
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 44%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.395) = 1.395
- Absolute miss = |1.395| = 1.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56554, race ID 138 (538 database).