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2018 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 623 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 47.2%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 47.2 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (-1.389) = 2.289
  4. Absolute miss = |2.289| = 2.289

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56559, race ID 139 (538 database).