Skip to content

2018 Senate · ND

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,498 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 54.5%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 55.11%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 54.5 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.268 − 55.106 = -10.838
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.838) = 1.837
  4. Absolute miss = |1.837| = 1.837

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56566, race ID 116 (538 database).