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2018 Senate · TN

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 471 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-10.787) = 5.787
  4. Absolute miss = |5.787| = 5.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56577, race ID 120 (538 database).