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2018 Senate · TN

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 780 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 53%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 53 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-10.787) = 4.787
  4. Absolute miss = |4.787| = 4.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56580, race ID 120 (538 database).