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2018 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2018-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 447 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 46.4%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 42.23% · Republican 54.33%

R+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 46.4 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 42.227 − 54.331 = -12.104
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (-12.104) = 7.305
  4. Absolute miss = |7.305| = 7.305

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56583, race ID 156 (538 database).