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2018 Governor · KS

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 986 respondents · Online Panel/Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 41%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.03% · Republican 42.96%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.028 − 42.957 = 5.071
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.071) = -3.071
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.071| = 3.071

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56588, race ID 144 (538 database).