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2018 Senate · CT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 780 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.1% · Republican 35.1%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.80% · Republican 39.35%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.1 − 35.1 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.797 − 39.350 = 17.447
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (17.447) = 2.553
  4. Absolute miss = |2.553| = 2.553

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56596, race ID 98 (538 database).