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2018 House · NH-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 570 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 46.1%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 53.56% · Republican 45.01%

D+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 46.1 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 53.561 − 45.010 = 8.551
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (8.551) = -6.851
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.851| = 6.851

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56598, race ID 417 (538 database).