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2018 House · NH-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 569 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 39.7%

D+12.7

The certified result

Democrat 55.54% · Republican 42.18%

D+13.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 39.7 = 12.70
  2. Actual margin = 55.544 − 42.184 = 13.360
  3. Signed miss = 12.70 − (13.360) = -0.660
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.660| = 0.660

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56598, race ID 418 (538 database).