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2018 House · NJ-7

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 356 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.74% · Republican 46.72%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.739 − 46.720 = 5.019
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.019) = -5.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.019| = 5.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56599, race ID 425 (538 database).