Skip to content

2018 Senate · WI

Marquette University Law School · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 1,154 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.36% · Republican 44.53%

D+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.357 − 44.532 = 10.825
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.825) = 0.175
  4. Absolute miss = |0.175| = 0.175

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56602, race ID 127 (538 database).