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2018 Governor · WI

Marquette University Law School · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 1,154 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.54% · Republican 48.45%

D+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.538 − 48.445 = 1.093
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.093) = -1.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.093| = 1.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56602, race ID 165 (538 database).