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2018 Senate · MA

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 32%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.34% · Republican 36.17%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 32 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.337 − 36.172 = 24.165
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (24.165) = -2.165
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.165| = 2.165

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56606, race ID 105 (538 database).