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2018 Governor · MA

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 68%

R+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.12% · Republican 66.60%

R+33.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 68 = -43.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.118 − 66.602 = -33.484
  3. Signed miss = -43.00 − (-33.484) = -9.516
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.516| = 9.516

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56606, race ID 147 (538 database).