2018 Senate · IN
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 496 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-5.890) = 8.890
- Absolute miss = |8.890| = 8.890
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56612, race ID 102 (538 database).