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2018 Senate · TN

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 718 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.787) = 1.787
  4. Absolute miss = |1.787| = 1.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56616, race ID 120 (538 database).