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2018 Senate · ND

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 55.11%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.268 − 55.106 = -10.838
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.838) = 1.837
  4. Absolute miss = |1.837| = 1.837

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56617, race ID 116 (538 database).