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2018 Governor · PA

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 214 respondents · Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 33%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.77% · Republican 40.70%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 33 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.768 − 40.695 = 17.073
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (17.073) = 8.927
  4. Absolute miss = |8.927| = 8.927

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56628, race ID 158 (538 database).