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2018 Senate · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 2,470 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 47.4%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 47.4 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (-0.123) = 2.023
  4. Absolute miss = |2.023| = 2.023

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56631, race ID 100 (538 database).