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2018 Governor · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 781 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.8% · Republican 51.1%

R+8.3

The certified result

Democrat 42.51% · Republican 55.81%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.8 − 51.1 = -8.30
  2. Actual margin = 42.508 − 55.807 = -13.299
  3. Signed miss = -8.30 − (-13.299) = 4.999
  4. Absolute miss = |4.999| = 4.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56632, race ID 163 (538 database).