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2018 Governor · TN

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 632 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.8% · Republican 54.2%

R+13.4

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.8 − 54.2 = -13.40
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -13.40 − (-21.007) = 7.607
  4. Absolute miss = |7.607| = 7.607

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56633, race ID 162 (538 database).