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2018 Senate · WV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 41.5%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.57% · Republican 46.26%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 41.5 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.572 − 46.262 = 3.310
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (3.310) = 2.490
  4. Absolute miss = |2.490| = 2.490

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56634, race ID 126 (538 database).