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2018 House · WV-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 344 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.4% · Republican 46.8%

R+7.4

The certified result

Democrat 42.98% · Republican 53.96%

R+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.4 − 46.8 = -7.40
  2. Actual margin = 42.976 − 53.959 = -10.983
  3. Signed miss = -7.40 − (-10.983) = 3.583
  4. Absolute miss = |3.583| = 3.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56634, race ID 599 (538 database).