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2018 House · WV-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 328 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 52.1%

R+7.6

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 56.37%

R+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 52.1 = -7.60
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 56.373 = -12.746
  3. Signed miss = -7.60 − (-12.746) = 5.147
  4. Absolute miss = |5.147| = 5.147

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56634, race ID 600 (538 database).