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2018 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 34%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.31% · Republican 36.21%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 34 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.310 − 36.214 = 24.096
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (24.096) = -1.096
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.096| = 1.096

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56652, race ID 107 (538 database).