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2018 House · VA-10

The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 446 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.11% · Republican 43.73%

D+12.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.106 − 43.731 = 12.375
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (12.375) = -1.375
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.375| = 1.375

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56656, race ID 577 (538 database).