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2018 Senate · CT

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 681 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 35%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.80% · Republican 39.35%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.797 − 39.350 = 17.447
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (17.447) = 5.553
  4. Absolute miss = |5.553| = 5.553

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56662, race ID 98 (538 database).