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2018 Governor · VT

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 885 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 49%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.26% · Republican 55.19%

R+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.255 − 55.187 = -14.932
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-14.932) = 4.932
  4. Absolute miss = |4.932| = 4.932

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56663, race ID 164 (538 database).