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2018 House · VT-1

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 885 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 66% · Republican 28%

D+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.20% · Republican 25.95%

D+43.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66 − 28 = 38.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.204 − 25.951 = 43.253
  3. Signed miss = 38.00 − (43.253) = -5.253
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.253| = 5.253

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56663, race ID 579 (538 database).