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2018 House · CA-49

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.42% · Republican 43.58%

D+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.419 − 43.581 = 12.838
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (12.838) = -5.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.838| = 5.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56666, race ID 236 (538 database).